Depreciation FYI

[goofygrin]

So I lease transferred my '13 FFE. I pay ~285/mo (no sales tax here in Texas). It currently has 15400 miles. I'm not sure my total miles allowed, but I won't hit it lol.

Lease ends 12/15. Due to this thread I went and checked out my values/residual/etc.

My current buyout is ~$21k. My residual at lease end is ~$18k.

The current value? According to KBB - $16.5k trade in, $17.8k private party.

Ouch. guys, BUYING an electric car is like buying one of the original DVD players in 1997. You're going to spend a TON more as an early adopter vs. the guy that waits a cycle or two. I've always said that leasing, recouping the rebates up front, is the only way to go with electrics and I stick to that now.

 

[michael]

Totally concur. My lease residual is around $18 k with 59k miles. At today's prices I can get a brand new one for the same, maybe less, after state and fed rebates.

 

[Trey]

I completely understand an agree with the residual value due to rebates and incentives. My question is how that value could change in the future. If the incentives and rebates go away in the next three years or so, how do you see that affecting the value of our FFEs?

 

[TrojanEV]

Ouch. guys, BUYING an electric car is like buying one of the original DVD players in 1997. You're going to spend a TON more as an early adopter vs. the guy that waits a cycle or two. I've always said that leasing, recouping the rebates up front, is the only way to go with electrics and I stick to that now.

I agree for those who bought/leased a year or two ago. I just bought my FFE in November and after all the rebates and tax credits, my out-the-door cost for buying (I didn't lease) was about $17,000. Even with all the technological advances in the next 5 years, there is a floor to the amount these very well equipped cars will depreciate over that time frame. I predict, worst case, my car will be worth $5,000 (probably slightly more), making my effective cost to own over 5 years to be $12,000. I think it would be very difficult to find any other similarly equipped car (EV or ICE) with that low of a cost to own for five years. Yes, in theory I could have leased and had a similar low cost for 3 years, but by buying the vehicle I'm locking in the ability to keep it at that low cost for as long as it suits my needs. So I think in my case, buying was the better option.

 

[Olagon]

We bought our last EV for $24,000 and then 18 months later sold it for $11,000. Still VERY happy with this purchase. We did get the fed tax credit and drove about 12,000 miles. Since we have excess PV, there was no cost to charge our car and we paid just $100 for maintenance. Plus we saved quite a bit from free parking in downtown Honolulu, one of the nation's most expensive places to park as well as free parking at the airport.

Despite this quick depreciation, we bought our FFE last October for about $29,000. The economics are really good for EVs from my perspective even with the depreciation.

What happens with the federal tax credits expire? If new EV cars are still priced at premiums then used EVs may raise in value a little.

 

[brad]

Since Ford pretty much destroyed the values of 2012 and 2013 models by dropping the current prices by $10k, I was wondering if anyone has returned their car at lease end and been offered to purchase it at a price lower than the residual. My lease is ending a year from now and I am debating on whether or not to continue driving the car above the mileage limit, which at my current rate, I will be putting an additional 9,000 miles on the car. I figure that even with the penalty that I pay, Ford Credit will take a considerable hit when they offer it to dealers at wholesale auction. I would consider buying the car if they offered it to me for $12k but at the current residual it is not far off from buying a new car, as others have mentioned in this thread.

 

[brad]

I just looked at my residual and it's $19435! Right now 2012 FFE'S are wholesaling at an average of $12k for 2012 models at Manheim, with an average of 17k miles. So a year from now my 2013 will likely be worth $10k with 39k miles. If Ford Credit doesn't want to sell the car back to me at a lower price, they can definitely take my car back! I'd rather buy a new one at a lower price.

 

[pjam3]

This car will be worthless if they ever come up with a 150 mile or 200 mile EV. Nobody would buy one of these if in 2017 there are a bunch of $30K 150+ mile EVs on the market.

 

[TrojanEV]

This car will be worthless if they ever come up with a 150 mile or 200 mile EV. Nobody would buy one of these if in 2017 there are a bunch of $30K 150+ mile EVs on the market.

That all depends on your definition of worthless. These are very nice vehicles that even with a limited range of 80 miles per charge, will still be worth at least $5,000 (probably a little more) for those who want to use them for around town errands or short commutes. That might feel "worthless" to someone who paid $30,000+ after incentives, though, I suppose.

 

[hybridbear]

On the Fusion Hybrid/Energi forums there is a Ford News Ticker. A recent press release highlighted record earnings for Ford Credit. However, it included this statement:

partially offset by unfavorable lease residual performance in North America

This made me start thinking about the FFE. There are very few Focus Electrics on the road so they won't have a meaningful impact on the Ford Credit earnings, but when those leases end Ford Credit will be losing thousands (maybe $10,000 plus) on each car due to "unfavorable lease residual performance". The residual on our Focus Electric lease is $18,945.50. At that point it will be 3+ years old and have over 30k miles on it. A brand new 2015 Focus Electric can currently be purchased for an MSRP of $29,170. Since most dealers sell them close to invoice price, with the federal tax credit a brand new Focus Electric costs only about $21,000. In Georgia it costs $16,000 since they have a $5000 state rebate. Californians get a $2500 state rebate so they can get a brand new Focus Electric for about $18,500.

This is why we chose to lease rather than buy... I'd guess that once lease return Focus Electrics start appearing, their resale value will be under $10,000.