Can Ford beat Tesla? Will Ford beat Tesla?

[jmueller065]

Posting about the rumors of the Focus Energi got me thinking: What other vehicles does Ford make that is based on the Focus platform...?

The Escape! An Escape hybrid would also be really easy to produce engineering wise as the C-Max Hybrid/Energi powertrain will also fit in that (there are rumors that Ford will be announcing an Escape Hybrid this year).

What would be really cool, though, what if Ford put the FFE powertrain in both the front and rear axle's on the Escape. A little bigger battery or just more advanced battery and they could have a BEV 4x4 SUV..a Ford model X. Granted it wouldn't have the range of the model X--it would probably have closer to 100 miles of range; 150 if they could stretch it. But still they'd have a BEV SUV that wasn't Tesla engineered and they could produce it pretty quickly as they already have all the pieces (and they should fit together pretty easily--that "One Ford" policy paying off).

 

[Bloggin]

Ford is working on a new hybrid drivetrain for SUVs and trucks, that should be available in a year or so. It as to offer RWD and AWD hybrid capability, so the current hybrid drivetrain won't work.

With the success that Mitsubishi is having with the Outlander plug-in with 31 EV miles, it's expected Ford will offer an Edge and Explorer plug in. Along with an F-150 plug-in hybrid, not only for the EV range and 75mph+ mpg, but for the ability to run electric equipment on the job site without the need for a gasoline generator.

Ford beating Tesla at the EV game is also doable. Ford has the massive manufacturing infrastructure, knowledge and distribution network, that if Ford offered a 300 EV mile version of the next gen All Aluminum and lightweight MKS sedan, invested in the Tesla SuperCharger network for long distance trips, Ford/Lincoln would have a winner. With 300 EV miles, local public charging would be mostly unnecessary. Once you charge up at home with 300 miles, you got all the juice you would need for the day.

For Ford, with the current 100 mile EV drivetrain costing $6,000. An EV version of the MKS would be a $18,000 premium. Based on the highest trim level/Elite at $43k, it would be about $61k or less.

A good indication of Ford's direction with battery technology will be the next gen Fusion, Focus and C-MAX that should launch MY2017/18. Ford hinted at underbody battery storage and wheel mounted motors with the Fiesta Concept. Just like Fords' current 'concepts', it's a good indication of what's coming. Over 100 EV miles, batteries can no longer be retrofitted into an ICE body without the body being designed to hold the battery pack.

 

[pjam3]

I really don't think they are in the same realm. Tesla is really a $100K+ car. Somebody buying a $100K car is never going to look at a $35K car and think wow, it's not only $29K. Same goes for somebody looking at a $35K car and loving it gets marked down to $29K even thinking about buying a $100K car. Different consumers.

Will Tesla ever offer a cheaper $35K model? Who knows. Remember a part of their fascination is the technology sector and hiring some best and brightest engineers and scientists who love working for an up and coming company. But the kool aid drinkers aren't around like they used to be. I mean when you have many workers who can't even afford the car you make, it becomes a different work environment. And there are plenty of employees these days who don't think Tesla is as great a place to work as it used to be. And the closer they get to becoming like most car manufacturers and amping out thousands of cars per month, the further from the ideals they'll get.

They've been trying to push out this $35K car concept for years and they aren't close to one. There latest Model X isn't going to really be out till end of this year. Nobody really needs to compete with them because they really aren't a long term solution to anything. They are like a Porsche in a way. Most people will never be able to buy one and they will never be some mainstream cheap car, but many wealthier individuals love the car and many others admire it from afar. Tesla is closer to being them then they are the next Ford.

 

[pjam3]

The other interesting aspect is Telsa is acting like a Software Tech company and kind of licensing out there technology. They are building a charging station network across the country. Those all are ways to make money without worrying about making money on just the car.
It's common in tech and software, not so much in Automotive. But it's a different concept where you might start to think building 1000 cars a month isn't your ideal, more like make $100K+ cars, sell them to the rich, and let some other company pay you for a license to build a cheaper car. They kind of did that with the Toyota Rav 4 in a way( i think thats the car). You don't really do that model if you also plan to build that model.

The Ford also doesn't have super chargers. Good and bad to that theory, the truth is, most people aren't going to be able to sit around for 2+ hours to re-charge their car. See my other posts about kids, about jobs, etc. And like a lot of us, I can't pull into a friends condo and hang out a 1000 foot extension cord to charge my car.

I don't see any of Fords or Chevys caring much about Electric like Tesla and none of them are building some network across the country to charge said vehicles. The other issue is charging. Up in Silicon Valley where i've been working on projects lately, there have been many stories where some companies install 2-3 Charging stations in the parking lot, but there are like 20 Electric or hybrid plug-in cars. And fights happen. And conversations about adding more stations. Except the companies aren't exactly open to it. Back down south in San diego, there are condo associations and other apartment complexes that get deals and tax incentives to install these charging stations, except they just don't want to do it. It's a money issue. It's a cater to a niche select of people issue.

Sometimes there are compromises where they install a bunch of charging stations near Handicapped parking spaces. So if you're not driving around with handicapped tags, there's a good chance you might get towed, even if you are charging. So you try and park as close as you can, but many times the cord just doesn't reach that far.

What I see is more plug-in hybrids like the Energi and C-Max getting more of the attention and most likely revenue. At the end of the day most people don't want to figure out how to use their cars. And if your top range is 80 miles in perfect weather, most people will not even think about buying this car.

 

[jeffand]

Tesla will not be able to build a electric car that has a range of 200 miles for less than $35,000. Unless the battery is not included. Tesla may have a option to rent the battery, to help keep the cost down. Owners could have the option to purchase the battery for $10,000 to $20,000. They may offer two battery choices. A 40 Kwh and a 60 Kwh battery I would guess may be the options. Possible driving range maybe 120, and 200 miles. These are some of the possible paths Tesla may take. The model E is about 3 years until actual production begins. Two years if they really push it.

 

[pjam3]

That's my point, so it won't be till like 2018 that Tesla has a 'Model E' That's a long time out.
And at this point, maybe it's because of where I live, but Tesla has lost it's luster to a few of us. Great car and all, but when you see more Tesla's driving the streets and in parking lots than Volkswagons, it really doesn't look all that impressive of a car.

Don't get me wrong I love the Tesla and in I imagine in most of the rest of the country, it would be one of those wow things, but I walked a mile today with my kids and saw like 7 Teslas either driving or parked. And I see them every day like this. I was telling my oldest son that it used to be one of those wow cars, but at $100K it's now become a Faux I'm Rich car. Like I said, in many other parts of the country, it might be a cool car to see, but at this point, I see more Tesla's than I do Volkswagon's. Nothing wrong with that and it's a great car, but at $100K, suddenly it's not really all that impressive.

And going forward that will be the challenge as the Model X is going to get a little less miles and will cost a bit more. And I know a few people who already pre-ordered the X and already have the Model S.

Truth be told, I've seen far more Tesla Model S's than I've seen Volts or FFE. I do see quite a few Leafs though.
At the end of the day, if I'm buying a $100K car, there has to be something extremely special about it besides it just being Electric. I don't see a ton of Porsche's and hell I don't see a ton of $100K+ cars at all being driven around on a normal basis. But I see Telsa Model S's all the time now. Love the car, love that it seems to be doing well, but in all honesty, I have not seen another FFE since I got mine and I don't remember seeing them before i got mine.

 

[jmueller065]

Truth be told, I've seen far more Tesla Model S's than I've seen Volts or FFE. I do see quite a few Leafs though.
At the end of the day, if I'm buying a $100K car, there has to be something extremely special about it besides it just being Electric. I don't see a ton of Porsche's and hell I don't see a ton of $100K+ cars at all being driven around on a normal basis. But I see Telsa Model S's all the time now. Love the car, love that it seems to be doing well, but in all honesty, I have not seen another FFE since I got mine and I don't remember seeing them before i got mine.

I live about 5 miles from Michigan Assembly--where the FFE (& ICE Focus, & C-Max) are built and I see more Leafs than FFE's! (Granted Southeastern Michigan isn't the most EV friendly place with all the ICE gearheads around.) I do know of about 4 FFE's that live in my area (including myself) and have seen them on occasion. I'm sure that my office is rather unique since there are two of us FFE drivers here (driving the identical FFE!).
As far as other EVs: I've seen two Tesla's and nothing else. The most EV's I've seen in one place around here was at last years "National Plugin Day":
http://jamiegeek.myevblog.com/2013/09/28/national-plug-in-day/

 

[pjam3]

It might be a California thing, who knows, but like I said, I might see 1 Porsche now and again, I've seen Lamborghini's now and again in certain towns, I think I've seen one maserati in my life , but I honestly would see 10 Model S's if I drove to the grocery store and back. And the grocery store isn't even a mile from me. They really have become the "hipster, Faux Rich" kind of car where I live as people who made a few extra bucks or got a nice bonus this year, wind up buying one or ordering one. I know a guy in my condo community who ordered a Model X. He makes around the same amount of money as I do. I honestly thought about buying one, but the reality is, I live in a condo complex, and while it's an overpriced $400K condo, it's still a condo.

Tesla's have become like the Hummers once were to me where I live. Years ago there were people living in Double wide trailers that looked like a dump, but they'd have a Hummer in their driveway. Where I live, you have people living in small condo and apartment complexes and there is a Tesla Model S in the parking lot. Nothing wrong with that, but it's become more "i'm fake rich" compared to "i love this car because it's changing the game and it's electric.

 

[jstack6]

Tesla can and will build the Gen II in late 2015 with 200 mile range and for about $35K before incentives. It's 25% smaller and lighter so the battery won't cost as much. This has been in their plans from the beginning.

They also are building their giga watt battery factory and that will also help with batteries. They also have a hybrid battery that will be out in 2015 for the model S that has 40% more range and a longer life.
http://phys.org/news/2013-09-tesla-patent-hybrid-battery-evs.html

Tesla has done the impossible every year since they started. I would never bet against them. In fact I own their stock and bet for them.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2013/11/05/tesla-considers-building-the-worlds-biggest-lithium-ion-battery-factory/

 

[timf]

I beg to differ about the Model S being a "faux I'm rich" car. People do not buy the Model S to make it appear they have a lot of money. They buy it because it's the only electric car currently on the market that combines performance, range and style. If the Model S was just another gas or sub-100 mile range electric car for the same price, it would not have anywhere near the sales. Many buyers have never owned a car that costs even half what the Model S does, but are buying into the technology.

The Tesla drivetrain is amazing. If you haven't had the chance to drive one, I strongly suggest you do. I personally couldn't justify spending that much money given the low driving position and spartan interior, but in future form factors such as Model X or E it's a real possibility. Their biggest limitation right now is only having a single model to choose from.

Tesla's only goal is to accelerate the adoption of vehicles powered by sustainable energy. This is done not only by producing a product that allows for practical use comparable to gas powered vehicles, but also providing the infrastructure to enable this via Superchargers. As it stands right now, Ford's only way to compete on this level is via plug-in hybrids, which unfortunately still use gasoline to extend their range. Even if they were to add a quick-charging port to the Focus Electric or future electric vehicles, they are depending on other individuals to build the actual charging stations to use. Along with finding ways to integrate larger batteries into their cars to enable travel between these stations, simply having these stations is the biggest challenge faced by other automakers in how to catch Tesla.

The Focus Electric is a fine car for the average commute, but is impractical unless you have an alternate car at your disposal for longer or emergency trips. Tesla is the only car company making all-electric cars that would be practical in a single car situation. Granted, for the price of a Model S you could buy both a Focus Electric and a fully loaded MKZ Hybrid, but having to juggle two cars that would never be used at the same time isn't very practical either.

 

[pjam3]

I beg to differ about the Model S being a "faux I'm rich" car. People do not buy the Model S to make it appear they have a lot of money. They buy it because it's the only electric car currently on the market that combines performance, range and style. If the Model S was just another gas or sub-100 mile range electric car for the same price, it would not have anywhere near the sales. Many buyers have never owned a car that costs even half what the Model S does, but are buying into the technology.

The Tesla drivetrain is amazing. If you haven't had the chance to drive one, I strongly suggest you do. I personally couldn't justify spending that much money given the low driving position and spartan interior, but in future form factors such as Model X or E it's a real possibility. Their biggest limitation right now is only having a single model to choose from.

Tesla's only goal is to accelerate the adoption of vehicles powered by sustainable energy. This is done not only by producing a product that allows for practical use comparable to gas powered vehicles, but also providing the infrastructure to enable this via Superchargers. As it stands right now, Ford's only way to compete on this level is via plug-in hybrids, which unfortunately still use gasoline to extend their range. Even if they were to add a quick-charging port to the Focus Electric or future electric vehicles, they are depending on other individuals to build the actual charging stations to use. Along with finding ways to integrate larger batteries into their cars to enable travel between these stations, simply having these stations is the biggest challenge faced by other automakers in how to catch Tesla.

The Focus Electric is a fine car for the average commute, but is impractical unless you have an alternate car at your disposal for longer or emergency trips. Tesla is the only car company making all-electric cars that would be practical in a single car situation. Granted, for the price of a Model S you could buy both a Focus Electric and a fully loaded MKZ Hybrid, but having to juggle two cars that would never be used at the same time isn't very practical either.

It's a Faux rich car where I live. People like to show it off, hang around it, park in Charging stations and not charge it and so on. Like I said, maybe it's different in other places, but where I'm at, I see about 20 Tesla's a day. I did drive it and I love it and if it wasn't a $100K+ car I would have bought it, but to me, it's just not worth it.

And being they've been talking to Apple and others around "selling" I'm not sure where they are going in the future. You can say this is just rumors, but Musk isn't exactly a guy who sticks with his companies long term. He does have a reputation of being a serial entrepreneur and not a guy who builds a company long term.

 

[pjam3]

I get the sense that Tesla is going to push many things outside of their cars. Their batteries, their motors, their technology, and who knows what else. Musk is a SV guy who likes to sell his companies. If Toyota and Ford and others start using Tesla's technology, who is to say he doesn't bail and start pushing his SpaceX more or his Loop Train idea. He kind of already proved Tesla could make an electric car that everybody wants and they've made money doing it.

There are some people who love building companies. There are others who are geniuses and can make their ideas into reality, but they aren't fond of building a company. Tesla is almost at the point of how do you build a company more than how to you make this cool new technology popular.

In the startup world, there are many who can build a successful company, get people to buy into their hype, make money, but then they get to the point of needing to sustain , maintain, and make wall street happy. It becomes far more about business and Politics and less about innovation. I'm not sure the Model E will be anything more than another product compared to an innovative one. And by the time it comes out in 2017-2018, who is to say Musk hasn't sold out by that time. It's far different building a startup compared to building a long term company. They are cool and the best now, but what happens when they are just another niche brand? And if they are still the best by 2018-2020, it kind of means the Electric market didn't progress and customers didn't really buy into it.

 

[hybridbear]

I could see Tesla selling SuperCharger access to other EVs. They could reach a licensing deal with Nissan/Ford where someone else built SuperCharger capability in their EVs and then Tesla could sell access to the SuperChargers. I could see them especially doing this if they miss some of their goals for the Model X or Model E (not called the Model E anymore as they've given up that trademark battle and are letting Ford have Model E) and are hurting for funds.