cpwl
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Re: No Ford Long Range BEV

Wed Apr 20, 2016 7:19 am

MNEV wrote:Sad but true. Fords idea that 100 miles is to "satisfy a big chunk of the population" is totally laughable. They will have to heavily discount the car the get any sales when people have a 200 mile range car available.

MNEV, I have to take exception to your basic precept here. While the effect will certainly be that once “affordable” 200 mile rang BEVs are available the 100 mile FFE will loose most of what will almost certainly be an already dismal market share, Ford’s statement that 100 mile range will “satisfy a big chunk of the populations” is in fact technically correct. Transportation studies have clearly identified that the median daily distance traveled is well below 50 miles. Furthermore, even the current 76 mile nominal range of the FFE is adequate for some 85% (if not more) of the driving public’s daily requirements. The problem is legacy attitudes and familiarity/comfort levels with ICE vehicles having ranges which are commonly 250-300 miles, even pushing towards 350/400 in recent years. For the most part people simply do not realize how little they actually drive on a daily basis and when they are convinced to critically examine their driving habits they “fall back” on excuses such as - but what if I want to go somewhere on short notice?, what if my plans change and I have an extra evening trip? What if I get stuck in traffic? What if ….. and so forth. For the “average” current ICE driver the 200 mile range is a “security blanket” that invokes an emotional response and gives a “warm fuzzy”. Cars are often sold by invoking those “emotional responses” and the 200 mile range BEV will be no exception to that. We have had that discussion before on the thread at:

http://www.myfocuselectric.com/forum/vi ... 1&start=10

The 100 mile FFE will certainly not be a market success in any metric other than allowing Ford to continue selling in CARB states which is quite lamentable given that that it will continue to be the excellent compact car that the current FFE’s has established.

There will always be a segment of the driving population who for whatever reason, be it long commutes, travelling salesmen, those who experience particularly cold winters, commute on high speed highways/freeways etc., drive more than 100 “rated” miles on a daily basis. That segment NEEDS the 200 mile “rated” range BEV with DCQC capabilities. The rest of us, in all honesty only WANT the extra range to satisfy the “corner conditions” of the occasional long distance days. For those days it is economically advantageous to either keep our current ICE cars as the long range/back-up vehicle or rent an ICE.

Sadly while technically correct in their analysis of what is needed on a daily basis, Ford has essentially relegated themselves to “also rans” in the BEV market by not pursuing a share of the 200 mile range BEV. In all honesty Ford does not need to release their first 200 mile range BEV in the current “entry level” market represented by the FFE. They could, perhaps should, pursue a mid to upper level quality BEV akin to the Tesla Model 3 or maybe between the Model 3 and Model S – the often speculated/recommended/desired Fusion/MKZ platform BEV which would sell in a higher cost market and provide for a greater measure of profitability. And I still espouse the position that the first legacy manufacturer to make their 200 mile range BEV compatible with Tesla’s SuperChargers will be the “best of the rest” behind Tesla who will clearly remain the BEV market leader for at least another 5 years no matter what “competing” models the legacy manufactures release.

Thanks and Cheers

Carl

cpwl
Posts: 71
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Location: Gatineau, QC, Canada

Re: No Ford Long Range BEV

Wed Apr 20, 2016 7:29 am

MNEV wrote:Now my theory is ford is saving there tax credits sales until others figure out the right formula (car design and battery) and then they can under cut them with the $7500 credit that the major electric players will have exhausted so they can corner the market for 2 years.... AND THEN THE WORLD buhahahaha...
While that is a nice thought I have yet to see any evidence that the current Ford senior management, even those in the electrified vehicle division, are sufficiently astute to market conditions and regulatory opportunities to develop and promulgate that level of strategic planning. It also presupposes that the next administration will continue the current tax credit programme? Maybe fair enough it the democrats retain the White House but much less of a surety if the Republicans win.

Nice idea though and perhaps a straw to grasp for those of us still calling (apparently on deaf corporate ears) for that 240 mile range, DCQC/Supercharger compatible BEV MKZ.

Thanks and Cheers

Carl

jmueller065
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Re: No Ford Long Range BEV

Wed Apr 20, 2016 8:02 am

cpwl wrote:While that is a nice thought I have yet to see any evidence that the current Ford senior management, even those in the electrified vehicle division, are sufficiently astute to market conditions and regulatory opportunities to develop and promulgate that level of strategic planning. It also presupposes that the next administration will continue the current tax credit programme? Maybe fair enough it the democrats retain the White House but much less of a surety if the Republicans win.
It is far more plausible that Ford is sitting back waiting to see what happens with the election. If the Republicans win they can count on things being rolled back and can slow their BEV/PHEV development even more than it already is...

Although, now that I have a C-Max and had the FFE: I'd love a 200 mile FFE and/or a 50 mile C-Max.
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MNEV
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2014 9:59 am

Re: No Ford Long Range BEV

Wed Apr 20, 2016 8:32 am

[quote="cpwlMNEV, I have to take exception to your basic precept here. While the effect will certainly be that once “affordable” 200 mile rang BEVs are available the 100 mile FFE will loose most of what will almost certainly be an already dismal market share, Ford’s statement that 100 mile range will “satisfy a big chunk of the populations” is in fact technically correct...


Carl[/quote]

I do not disagree with the technical argument; although the winter games we play in cold climate areas is a bit ridiculous (I use the heater less than 50% of the time in the winter... the colder it is the less I get to use it). My point is the word "satisfy" is an emotional responses which you indicate so well later in your post that the 100 mile fails compared to the 200 mile cars. To be right technically and think that will "satisfy" consumers is what I find laughable. This sounds like an engineer speaking rather than a marketing person. The car wont sell because it will not "satisfy a big chunk of the population".

The sad thing is up until this year the FFE was one of the better electric offerings which Ford chose not to market. It is now behind the curve (with the 100 mile Leaf with DC) and when they finally match that they will be behind the 200 mile cars.

They need an independent design team to electrify the Fusion to 200 miles and serve it up to Ford on a platter.

jmueller065
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Re: No Ford Long Range BEV

Wed Apr 20, 2016 9:03 am

MNEV wrote:The car wont sell because it will not "satisfy a big chunk of the population".
Well, by definition, the car doesn't sell well now! LOL <2k cars a year is a compliance vehicle. Ford has said in the past that they are happy with the number of sales of the FFE. Thus if a 100 mile FFE sells <2k cars per year Ford will be happy.

This discussion is talking about the greater EV market (given the almost 500,000 reservations for the Model 3, and the promised 20k+ production for the Bolt). That isn't where the FFE is aimed. Ford would seriously start rethinking their strategy if 20,000 people lined up at dealers to place orders for the FFE but that won't happen and Ford is perfectly happy with that.

Thus this whole argument is moot: @ 100+ miles of range the '17 FFE will sell 100 and change cars a month and Ford will be happy.

Its just us that will complain that Ford isn't doing anything....
2018 Cajun Red Chevy Bolt
2016 Magnetic C-Max Energi (lease returned)
2014 Sunset Escape
2014 Thor Axis (V-10)
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cpwl
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Location: Gatineau, QC, Canada

Re: No Ford Long Range BEV

Wed Apr 20, 2016 9:36 am

MNEV wrote: The sad thing is up until this year the FFE was one of the better electric offerings which Ford chose not to market. It is now behind the curve (with the 100 mile Leaf with DC) and when they finally match that they will be behind the 200 mile cars.
Absolutely! Until the next-gen Leaf and the Bolt hit the showroom floors the FFE is the best non-Tesla BEV available! And given that the Leaf will retain their air-cooled battery architecture I'd argue that the 100 mile range FFE is still better in all respects other than range.
MNEV wrote: They need an independent design team to electrify the Fusion to 200 miles and serve it up to Ford on a platter.
:lol: We’ve been there before too! :lol: Imploring Magna to develop a Fusion Electric and provide it to Ford much like they developed the FFE.

But making the Fusion into a 200 mile range BEV would be rather more involved than was the case for a 76 mile range FFE. To get anywhere near the required battery capacity, not only would you need the current Energi battery pack and one filling the gas tank void, it would require strapping a battery under the floor from front wheel wells to the rear wheel wells akin to the Tesla skateboard battery. Beyond the added weight, it is the physical height of that underfloor battery that would mess with the suspension and wheel spindle geometry causing so many problems, not the least of which would be the requirement for rocker panel skirts and resolving the volume of unfilled wheel wells resulting from lowering the wheel spindles. And if you are doing this to a Fusion make it an MKZ and take advantage of its “premium status” and extra appointments to help justify the cost increase. And then it needs to have 70% of the Tesla performance to justify those costs further increasing the overall challenge. In the end it really speaks to developing a dedicated chassis for a 200 mile range BEV even if it is heavily leveraged off a current body style.

Not that I don’t want this and haven’t lobbied for it to Ford/Lincoln auto show staff before as well as my local salesman and dealership manager when I bought Montgomery…. I just don’t see it happening under the management and performance vehicle culture that currently pervades Ford. Given Ford’s corporate malaise regarding BEVs and the size of the project I can’t really fault Magna for not doing this as a speculative project either.

We want it, just don’t see getting it from Ford before 2021 at the very earliest.


Thanks and Chees

Carl

jmueller065
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Re: No Ford Long Range BEV

Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:06 am

Hold the presses! If Ford isn't making a 200 mile EV then why did it spend so much to get a Model X???

Ford buys Model X for $199,950!
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cpwl
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Location: Gatineau, QC, Canada

Re: No Ford Long Range BEV

Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:35 am

jmueller065 wrote:Hold the presses! If Ford isn't making a 200 mile EV then why did it spend so much to get a Model X???

Ford buys Model X for $199,950!
Jamie, yes I saw that earlier today. Quite a premium to say the least and just to know how and with what you are going to get trounced!! I dare say they have had a Model S for some time as well but still no movement (or at least no public information) on an indigenous Ford long range BEV. It might be possible that Ford is quietly working on a “Tesla Fighter” and the denials are just to protect a surprise announcement but there have been no credible reports on this and to keep such a programme so quiet for so long would be exceedingly improbable. Unfortunately I think the articles quoting Kevin Layden that Ford is not pursuing a 200 mile range BEV are certainly more credible and outweigh any speculation that their purchase of a Model X might invoke.

YMMV

Carl

jmueller065
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Re: No Ford Long Range BEV

Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:21 pm

cpwl wrote:Unfortunately I think the articles quoting Kevin Layden that Ford is not pursuing a 200 mile range BEV are certainly more credible and outweigh any speculation that their purchase of a Model X might invoke.
Oh I agree with you there; I'm far too jaded at this point to believe any optimistic BEV Ford news.
2018 Cajun Red Chevy Bolt
2016 Magnetic C-Max Energi (lease returned)
2014 Sunset Escape
2014 Thor Axis (V-10)
2013 Focus Electric (lease returned Jan 2016 for the C-Max above)
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MNEV
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2014 9:59 am

Re: No Ford Long Range BEV

Wed Apr 20, 2016 1:41 pm

jmueller065 wrote:Hold the presses! If Ford isn't making a 200 mile EV then why did it spend so much to get a Model X???

Ford buys Model X for $199,950!
I think they have Falcon Door Envy...

That or they keep the "electrification engineers" busy tearing down and putting together a Tesla since they are not busy with any Ford products. Cannot have idle hands in the electrification division.

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