jcrowne wrote:I picked up my brand new FFE last Wednesday. I was really excited about it until this morning, when I got my first "Stop Safely Now" warning... on the freeway at 70 MPH.
Is it inevitable that we will all get the stop safely now warning (SSNW)? I know that sounds crazy, but let's look at my reasoning behind the thought.
First, let's take the number of FFE's sold. The most accurate numbers we have on total units sold to date is 1104.
Second, let's take the number of those owners who have found this website and are posting on it. Let's estimate high since they're early adopters and probably actively engaged in the EV movement. So let's say 30% have discovered the forum, signed up, and are actively reading and posting. This is about 330 owners.
Third, let's look at the number of owners who would post if they had a SSNW message, and let's say again that it would be a fairly high number, or about 50%, equaling 165 users, under the assumption that some folks won't report it because they just not interested, and some folks won't because they've already read enough about it to know what to do (i.e. go to the dealer). This makes about 165 posts for the SSNW.
Finally, let's take those posts and distribute them out over time. This is because as far as we've seen, the SSNW is not a DOA issue from the dealership, nor do does it seem to happen at any specific time. So let's give the chance of a SSNW occurrence a normal distribution over the roughly 12 months that the car has been sold, and project 2 years out for the total term of most leases.
This analysis says that we should be seeing about 4-5 SSNW posts per month if 100% of the vehicles are going to be affected. Isn't that close to what we're seeing?
I don't think this bodes well for the rest of us.
A simpler way of looking at it is the percentage of SSNW occurrences to the number of units sold. That's already a really high ratio compared to automotive industry norms for issues, and there's no guesswork involved with that math.
P.S. Perhaps this should be a separate post, but I wanted to include it here for continuity of the discussion. I'm really hoping someone can show an alternate viewpoint, because I'm nervous about my FFE.