Ford full-size, high-performance, long-range vehicle?

Ford CEO Mark Fields says the company has the expertise and ability to build a Tesla-style full-size, high-tech, high-performance, long-range electric vehicle.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/10/24/ford-tesla/17827533/

"Can" and "Will" are very different things.

They have the D3/Taurus platform that should be fine in size/weight requirements. They can make nice interiors as most Lincolns (except that weird touch bar on the radio) are very nice on the inside. The Focus EV drive is very very good.

But I don't think they will. Even A MKS isn't that expensive of a car, it would be hard to jump $30k in base price to a base model. And right now the Model S and Tesla have cachet that Ford could only dream of. Competing directly with the Model S isn't really a great idea right now.

I do hope that the next generation Fusion platform has a full EV variant. And hope the C-Max and Focus have less obtrusive EV drives next generation as well. Competing against the Tesla Model 3 is where every auto manufacturer should be right now. Steal some of the hype, and sales, from Tesla. Scraping off customers in the Tesla 3-6 month wait list.

ElSupreme said:

"Can" and "Will" are very different things.

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Yeah, sounds mostly like vapor-bragging. "We're as good as Tesla..."

I hope they do make more EVs though.

I had seen some Lincoln ads on TV that cited their history of great an innovative cars. At the time, I thought...OK Ford, please show you've still got it....build us a Tesla quality car at a reasonable cost and you will really have something. And quite possibly under the Lincoln label, that makes sense.

Please...do it!

michael said:

I had seen some Lincoln ads on TV that cited their history of great an innovative cars. At the time, I thought...OK Ford, please show you've still got it....build us a Tesla quality car at a reasonable cost and you will really have something. And quite possibly under the Lincoln label, that makes sense.

Please...do it!

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I am really hoping for a Fusion/MKZ parallel offer. In 3-4 years when they update the platform.

I’d certainly be in for a full sized, long range Ford EV based on the Fusion/MKS(Z) platform and the 3-4 year timeframe would probably be about right as well. (3-4 years before initial production and 2 years of production to mature the product would give me time to pay-off the FFE loan – if it ever gets here – and have a year or two without car payments before jumping into car debt again.) In fact the first time I test drove the FFE as the salesman and I walked out of the showroom we passed an MKS at which point I commented that an electric drive train and long range battery variant of the MKS would be my prime choice if it were ever to be developed and marketed.

Nevertheless, the one thing that would be extremely important though is what Level 3 charging protocol would be adopted to truly enable intercity travel in such a “vapourware EV”. I know Ford has aligned itself with the CCS protocol but that decision was made before Tesla opened up their patents for “good faith use”. In 3-4 years the Supercharger network will be very well deployed in North America and Europe and the newest installations will probably be rated in the 80-90KW range per bay. It is also probable that Tesla’s previously announced solar canopies for Superchargers will also be in the rollout process by then making Supercharger-compatible EVs yet more green and more convenient to recharge. I can’t really envision anyone being able to compete with that (certainly not in the 3-5 year timeframe anyway) so adopting the Tesla charging protocols would be a great benefit to potential consumers of this “vapourware EV”. And as far as the $2,000.00 premium to enable Supercharger access, while far from a negligible-cost option, that too would be monies very well spent.
Additionally, as the battery capacity increases the onboard charger rating will need to be substantially increased to facilitate overnight at-home Level 2 charging when the battery has been substantially depleted. Again Tesla could be a ready-made solution with their 10KW chargers (optionally fitted in pairs) and the HPWC capable of delivering 20KW in a suitably wired home.

Ford has indeed demonstrated that they can build a capable EV on an extremely flexible production line. Taking the next step into a full sized, long range EV on an analogous production line utilizing proven technology from Tesla would allow Ford to both define and exploit a market niche above the current non-Tesla offerings without competing directly with Tesla and without having to undertake the very expensive complete development of a full sized, fully capable EV. There is in fact no reason whatsoever to start from the zero point when over half of the work has already been done and is available at a reasonable cost.

Thanks and Cheers

Carl

ElSupreme said:

"But I don't think they will. Even A MKS isn't that expensive of a car, it would be hard to jump $30k in base price to a base model. And right now the Model S and Tesla have cachet that Ford could only dream of. Competing directly with the Model S isn't really a great idea right now.

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I think you might be making a couple of assumptions that are a bit too simplistic, or at least errantly based on current price premiums. If Ford were to develop a full sized EV based on, for arguments sake, the Fusion/MKZ platform it would undoubtedly take 3-4 years to bring it to market and in the intervening time it is probable that the cost of the battery per KWhr will come down, perhaps by as much as 10-15%. Furthermore, the price of the electric drive will also come down and perhaps by a larger percentage than does the battery. So your $30K EV premium may be only $25K or even a bit less. I’d like to think $20K but that won’t happen in the 3-5 year timeframe, maybe 6-8 years.
And secondly, like the FFE, any MKZ-based EV would undoubtedly be built on a well-equipped variant that would retail in the $40K range bringing the base price of a well equipped MKZ EV variant in the order of $65K. High trim levels are the only way the high costs of an EV variant can be effectively marketed to the general public. Nobody wants to pay a premium price and receive a baseline trim even if they understand the necessity of the EV premium price.

At $65K this EV would still be less expensive than a base Model S and should be sufficiently well equipped to be in a market demographic above the Tesla Model 3 so Ford would still be not be in direct competition with Tesla. It would not be the “breakthrough fully capable EV” that would make the EV “mainstream”, but it would put Ford into a strong position in the mid-priced personal luxury EV market.

The other side of this platform, a long range Fusion EV at a lower trim level could probably be marketed in the $40-45K price range 2-3 years after releasing the MKZ EV variant. That “vapourware Fusion EV” could be a direct competitor to the Tesla Model 3 which most analysts think will be in the $40K range despite Tesla’s current $35K price point goal.

A few thoughts and “guesses” on my part anyway.

Thanks and Cheers

Carl

A few observations/opinions on this "Lincoln EV" argument:

cpwl said:

Furthermore, the price of the electric drive will also come down

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What? I would argue this cost is already significantly lower than a comparable ICE. Given the time/effort it has taken Ford to develop the Ecoboost engines vs the time/effort it took Magna to come up with the FFE's drive train--hands down Magna had the easier task.

You must also keep in mind Lincoln's pricing strategy: There is no price difference between the MKZ and the MKZ hybrid. It is very likely that they would attempt to keep that in place for other powertrains, or at least minimize it. Thus, as an example, you could purchase an ICE MKZ, Hybrid MKZ, Energi MKZ, or EV MKZ all for the same price would be the way that Ford would go. Especially since Lincoln is the premium brand they could bury the cost in the profit (e.g. take a smaller profit for the higher cost powertrains--granted the shareholders wouldn't like this..but they are already doing it).
For comparison I built up a loaded MKZ with the 2.0L Ecoboost and a loaded Fusion with the 2.0L Ecoboost:
MKZ: $41,095
Fusion: $32,185
Granted that difference doesn't cover the cost of the 23kW battery in the FFE (at least at today's prices) it is close and, as mentioned above, the prices are coming down fast.

Jamie,

Thanks for your reply and insight. I expect that you are right with your premise that the EV power train is already less expensive than a comparable ICE powertrain. However, consider that the FFE power train is being produced at a rate of approximately 2000 per year and that is after 3 years of production and market growth (such as it has been for the FFE). At such a low volume there will by necessity be a substantial amount of manual labour involved in the production process as the gross profits, as opposed to per unit profit, will not be sufficient to justify the cost of the very high levels of automation found in ICE power train manufacturing. As market share and production rates grow then automation can be afforded and the “economies of scale” can begin to reap greater cost savings further lowering the cost of the EV powertrain. If Ford were to put a legitimate marketing effort into the FFE and it were to begin to compete with the Leaf sales volumes (I know huge “ifs” that are highly improbable) I’d be willing to guess retail costs could come down another $1.5-2K just because of savings realized by economies of scale for both the power train and battery production. Further incremental technical advances will continue to slowly lower costs, at least in real current year dollar terms if not future year inflated dollars prices.

I was unaware that Lincoln maintained the same price for any powertrain in a given chassis and hence reaped lower profits from the more expensive powertrain equipped cars. I’ve not had enough discretionary income to even consider a new Lincoln to bother looking into it! I think that in and of itself though, that pricing policy would point to offering the EV powertrain in a more expensive trimmed model. The extra profit from the higher trim levels would help offset the higher cost of the EV powertrain thus helping Ford to produce the MKZ EV “vapourware car” at a minimally acceptable profit margin.

This has become an interesting discussion with critical factors which are not immediately apparent. I think Ford would be hard pressed to maintain the “powertrain independent” pricing policy for an Energi or EV variant of the MKZ. I’d like to see it as that would benefit the consumer in terms of buy-in price, but unless the ICE variants price came up to offset the reduced profit of the Energi and EV variants I can’t see it as a realistic business plan. Could Lincoln “sell” the justification for the premium pricing of the Energi and EV variants? That is of course the “pivot point” in the business case for Ford to produce this vapourware EV! Well I’m “one of the choir” so to speak so I’d still be willing to pay a premium for the EV powertrain in a long range fully capable MKZ EV as well as the $2K Supercharging enable fee if it were in production when I’ve paid off my FFE.

Thanks and Cheers

Carl

cpwl said:

I was unaware that Lincoln maintained the same price for any powertrain in a given chassis and hence reaped lower profits from the more expensive powertrain equipped cars.

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To my knowledge it is only between the Hybrid and non-Hybrid MKZ not any other Lincolns. It is featured in one of their "comparison commercials":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYjnfYioAcY

jmueller065 said:

cpwl said:

I was unaware that Lincoln maintained the same price for any powertrain in a given chassis and hence reaped lower profits from the more expensive powertrain equipped cars.

Click to expand...

To my knowledge it is only between the Hybrid and non-Hybrid MKZ not any other Lincolns.

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Yes, if you want the V6 MKZ you pay more than the MKZh and you will spend around twice as much on gas and likely on maintenance. Every time I see a V6 MKZ on the road I am very confused. And it seems that most of them that I see around here are the V6 version.